어제 오후에 다시 필라델피아로 돌아왔다. 추웠지만 객지에서 집으로 와서 그런지 기분은 좋다. 내일이면 와튼에서의 2학기가 시작된다. 2번째 학기 (semester)의 첫째 quarter에는 재미있고 다양한 과목을 많이 들을 예정인데 앞으로 차차 한과목 한과목씩 자세히 설명하도록 하겠습니다. 작년 말에 잠깐 시간이 남았을때 스탠포드 대학 앞에 있는 Borders 책방에서 오래간만에 책을 한권 샀다. 그러고보니, 미국에 와서 학교 공부 바쁘다는 핑계로 책을 너무 안 읽은거 같다. 한국에서는 그래도 한달에 2권 정도는 읽었는데 생각해 보니 미국에 와서는 제대로 된 책을 한권도 보지 않았다. 하여튼 지금 이 책을 읽고 있는데 블로그를 통해서 잠시 소개를 하고 싶다.

불가능하다고 하였던 HP-Compaq deal을 가능케 하였으며, 인수 후 모든 작업을 매끄럽게 처리한 전설적인 여성 CEO Carly Fiorina가 쓴 자서전 “Tough Chioces – A Memoir“라는 책이다. Carly Fiorina는 이 거대한 인수작업 후 얼마 안되어서 HP의 이사회로부터 갑작스래 해고 당하였으며, 지금은 사회봉사 관련된 활동 및 강의를 하면서 인생을 보내고 있는걸로 알고 있다. 난 Carly에 대해서 잘 모르지만, 지금까지 매스컴을 통해서 좋은 쪽 보다는 나쁜 쪽으로 인상을 받았다. 그리고 내가 기억하는 Carly Fiorina와의 유일한 interaction은 2001년도 스탠포드 대학 졸업식때 감명깊은 졸업연사를 하였는데, 이 때 본 기억밖에 없다 (몇 년 뒤인 2006년도에 Steve Jobs가 10배 더 감동깊은 졸업 연사를 하는 바람에 Fiorina 여사의 졸업 연사는 사람들 기억 속에서 사라졌을거다…Jobs의 “Stay hungry, stay foolish” 기억나나?). 책에 있는 내용이 100% 맞다고 믿지는 않지만 그래도 50% 이상은 진실이라고 생각한다. 그리고 이 책을 보면서 나는 서서히 Fiorina 여사의 팬이 되고 있는 내 자신을 발견한다. 여성으로써 남성 호르몬으로 중무장한 type A 남성들이 득실거리는 치열한 비즈니스 세계에서 최고의 IT 회사 중 하나인 HP의 CEO가 되기까지의 처절한 노력에 존경을 표시하며, 그 이후의 성과에 경외심마저 표시를 하고 싶다.
Fiorina는 하느님이 자신에게 주신 보잘것없는 능력보다는 후천성 노력을 항상 강조 하는데, 나는 여기에 많이 공감 하였으며, 인간의 의지가 얼마나 중요하고 세상을 바꿀 수 있는지에 대해서 본인의 생생한 경험담을 바탕으로 독자들에게 알려준다. 특히 내 눈을 catch하였던 문구가 있는데,
“If we cannot choose our circumstances, we can always choose our responses to them. If we cannot choose who we are, we can always choose to become something more.”

많이 와 닿는 말이었다…인생을 살면서 내 앞에 닥친 장애물이나 시련을 내가 고를 수는 없지만, 그 장애물이나 시련을 극복할 수 있는 방법은 내가 스스로 고를 수 있다. To stop choosing is to start dying. 우리는 주위에 이런 사람들을 너무나 많이 볼 수 있다. 구두닦이 소년이 열심히 공부해서 서울대학교에 진학하는 이야기, 소녀 가장이 열심히 일해서 일가족을 먹여 살리면서 재벌이 되는 이야기….불우한 환경을 극복하고 훌륭한 사람들이 우리 주위에는 너무나 많지만 아직도 나약한 젊은이 들이 더 많은게 현실이다. 공포를 극복하는 법을 배우자. 나약해지지 말자. 강해 지자.

오늘 BusinessWeek지를 보니, Warren Buffett과 한국과 관련된 재미있는 기사가 있었다. 지난 번에 소개하였던 Jeremy Siegel 교수가 쓴 글과도 일맥상통하는 내용같다.

Why Warren Buffett’s Keen on Korea
“Attractively priced” stocks, healthy debt ratios, plus solid manufacturing prowess position Korea to profit from growth in China and the Mideast
by Moon Ihlwan

In other parts of the world, South Korea’s gross domestic product growth—projected at around 5% this year—would make it a high-profile destination for portfolio managers. But since Korea is in Asia, the country is largely overshadowed by the dazzling economic performances of China and India. As concerns grow about overvalued Chinese and Indian stocks, though, money managers shuffling their Asian portfolios are finding Korea increasingly attractive. For American billionaire investor Warren Buffett, for example, China is out, and Korea is in. During his visit to Asia late last month, Buffett cautioned against overreaching in China. Yet he expressed confidence in Korean equities, describing the country as “one of the world’s most attractively priced markets.”
Indeed, Buffett’s holding in Korean steelmaker Posco (PKXFF) is one of his top-performing stock investments this year. Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) spent $572 million over the past three years or so for a 4% stake in Posco, one of the most profitable steelmakers on the planet, and that stake is now worth well over $2 billion. Berkshire recently sold off its shares in PetroChina, the only Chinese company it owned, but Buffett said during his brief visit to Korea on Oct. 25 that he would hang on to Posco. “It’s a great company and great companies get worth more and more,” he said.
Certainly Korea is not immune to the turmoil shaking markets worldwide. Shocks from the U.S. credit crisis and soaring oil prices have pared the Seoul exchange’s benchmark Kospi index by around 9% this month. Weaker-than-expected tech demand has sent prices nose-diving in memory chips (BusinessWeek.com, 6/15/07), where the Koreans rule.
Samsung Electronics (SSNGY), the bellwether for the country’s information technology sector, has fallen nearly 15% this year and has laid off some 1,600 workers, almost 2% of its workforce.

Korea Excels in Shipbuilding
Still, the benchmark Kospi index is up about 30% from the end of last year, a reflection of strong growth in other parts of the Korean economy. A major attraction is the country’s manufacturing prowess in diversified industries. Korea’s shipbuilding, steel, petrochemical, and other smokestack companies are booming as emerging economies spend heavily to build up their infrastructure and as their shipping trade explodes. “A number of Korean companies are dominant forces in cyclical industries and have historically outperformed their global peers when their industries are in an upswing,” says Yang Ho Chull, chief executive of Morgan Stanley (MS) Korea. “What’s particularly attractive for portfolio managers is the strong performance of these companies, fueled by the rapid growth of China.”
Consider the shipbuilding industry. As China turns into the factory of the world, demand for new ships to carry China trade is expected to remain strong until at least 2010, according to a report by the Bank of Korea, the central bank in Seoul. That means Korea’s shipbuilding firms, which built 41% of all ships delivered last year and include the world’s top three players—Hyundai Heavy Industries (HYHZF), Samsung Heavy Industries (SMSHF), and Daewoo Shipbuilding & Engineering (DWOSF)—will enjoy a boom (BusinessWeek.com, 5/18/07) for a few more years.
The influx of shipbuilding revenue to Korea is so huge that the central bank warned this month against further appreciation of the Korean currency. The shipbuilders, who are sitting on enough work for almost four years, cash in their future revenues to be received in dollars on the forward market to hedge against currency risks. Banks that take up the forward deals then sell dollars for the won on the spot market to offset their dollar forward purchases, and subsequently borrow dollars abroad to settle their spot deals, in the process pushing up the won. Little wonder the share price of Hyundai Heavy, the global shipbuilding leader, has more than tripled so far this year. On Nov. 8, the world’s top shipbuilder released its third-quarter results, reporting that its net profit more than doubled, to $475 million, from $230 million in the July-September period last year.

Greater Transparency Means Higher Stock Prices
Other cyclical sectors such as steel and petrochemical industries are also benefiting from rapid development of emerging markets. LG Chem (LGCLY), Korea’s largest petrochemical company, churns out products ranging from plastics to flooring and automotive parts. It posted a 73% jump in its net profit, to $229 million, in the third quarter. LG shares have jumped 120% so far this year.
The introduction of global corporate standards in Korea since the 1997 Asian crisis has also paved the way for share gains. “In the past, the Korean market has traded at a relative discount because of a lack of transparency and liquidity; but with significant improvement in these areas, the discount, at least for the leading 40 or 50 Korean companies, is disappearing. It is no longer a major issue,” reckons Yang at Morgan Stanley.
Corporate restructuring since the crisis has also improved the financial health of Korean companies. Economist Lim Kyung Mook at Korea Development Institute, a government-funded think tank, points out that the country’s average corporate debt, which used to be as high as four times equity in the late 1990s, has been cut to below 100% of equity. “Many Korean companies are now sitting on a cash pile big enough for them to weather a downturn and reap handsome profits from the next upturn,” Lim says.

Higher Oil Prices Help Korean Contractors
Take LG.Philips LCD (LPL), which has maintained its debt level well below half its equity. The world’s second-largest maker of liquid-crystal display (LCD) panels was bleeding red ink for four consecutive quarters until March of this year because of a supply glut in the industry. Yet the company last month reported a net profit of $573 million for the July-September period, its strongest profit in 13 quarters, against a loss of $249 million a year earlier, as demand for thin panels for computers and TVs grew.
Even an upsurge in oil prices is translating into a bonanza for engineering and construction companies in oil-importing Korea. That’s because the Koreans take a big chunk of the red-hot Middle East construction market. Much of the money earned from high oil prices is spent in building new refineries, petrochemical plants, highways and water desalinization plants, where Korean contractors are strong.
There’s no sign the stream of new construction orders will slow soon. In Dubai, the world’s largest building, the world’s largest indoor ski slope, and three artificial islands shaped like palm trees are all under construction. Saudi Arabia is building the $27 billion King Abdullah Economic City. And Kuwait plans to double its refining capacity at a cost of $14 billion. “The Middle East countries have never been so determined to set up their own industrial base,” says Hong Sung Il, a general manager at Samsung Engineering (SGRGF), a specialist plant contractor whose share price more than doubled so far this year. “The construction boom there will continue at least until the end of this decade.” Korean companies have won $25.6 billion worth of construction contracts in the first nine months of this year, up from $12.6 billion a year earlier, according to Seoul’s Construction & Transportation Ministry.

Decoupling from the U.S. Economy
The dwindling dependence of Korea’s cyclical industries on the U.S. economy is good news in the face of slower consumer spending in America (BusinessWeek.com, 11/26/07). “To some extent, the Korean economy has been decoupled from the U.S. economy,” says Chang In Hwan, chief executive at Seoul fund manager KTB Asset Management. “A spending crunch in America will be felt much more mildly here now than it was a few years ago,” he says.
Encouraged by the more balanced industrial strength, a growing number of Korean consumers are putting their money in stocks instead of in real estate and bank deposits. The amount of money in equity mutual funds, or investment trust funds as they are known locally, reached $111 billion this month, up from $50 billion at the end of last year. “Short-term corrections and fluctuations are inevitable, but in the longer term better corporate profitability and improved liquidity will drive the Korean market upward,” says Chang.